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Armenia, economic activity decreased by 7.2% in 11 months of 2020

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28.12.2020
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In Armenia, economic activity in January-November  2020 deepened the decline to 7.2% per annum, against the backdrop of an accelerating decline in imports  and a slowdown in exports. In November of this year versus November 2019, economic activity decreased  by 10.3%, with an almost similar 10.2% decline in November 2020 alone, after an October decline of 4.9%. 

A year earlier, in January-November 2019, against the same period of 2018, economic activity increased by  7.5%, in November compared to November 2018 - by 10.1%, while in November alone, it decreased by  8.5%.

According to preliminary data from the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, industries that  previously acted as drivers of economic activity growth are now in decline, amid the coronavirus crisis and  martial law, and only the energy complex was able to maintain growth close to stagnation - 1.8% in  January-November 2020, versus the same period in 2019. The rest of the fields showed a decline: the  industrial sector - by 0.2%, construction - by 11.2%, the service sector - by 13.6%, trade - by 13.5%. A year  earlier, in January-November 2019, the growth of economic activity was determined by the service sector -  by 14.8%, the industrial sector - by 9.3%, trade - by 9.2% and, to a lesser extent, the construction sector -  by 4.5%, with recession of the power complex by 3.4%. For the agricultural sector, only quarterly data are  published.

The industrial product price index increased in January-November 2020 compared to the same period in  2019 by 2.2%, in November 2020 compared to November 2019 - by 4.5%, and in November 2020 alone-  by 0.9% after the October decline by 0.7%. A year earlier, in January-November 2019 compared to the same period in 2018, the industrial product price index increased by 0.4%, in November 2019 compared to November 2018 it decreased by 0.6%, and in November 2019 alone increased by 0.5%.

In monthly terms (for November), all industries demonstrated growth, except for the services sector, which  declined by 2.8%. Thus, the industrial sector accelerated growth in November to 4% (from 3.2% in October), and the construction sector accelerated growth to 10% (from 3% in October). The rest of the fields reversed the trend from downtrend to upward. In particular, trade emerged from the October 13.4% decline to November 1% growth, and the energy complex - from the October 1.8% decline to the  November 1.9% growth. A year earlier, in November 2019, the industries that showed growth were the construction and industrial sectors - 8.9% and 6.9%, respectively, the energy complex - 1.7% and the trade sector - 1.5%, and the service sector was in decline by 8, 4%.

In y-o-y terms (November 2020 to November 2019), a decline was recorded in the trade sector - by 22%, in the service sector - by 18.6% and in the industrial sector - by 6.1%. The growth was shown by the energy complex - 3.1% and the construction sector - 2%. A year earlier (November 2019 to November 2018), the decline was recorded only in the energy complex - by 9.3%, while the rest of the fields showed growth:  industry - 13.8%, trade - 11.9%, services - 11.6% %, construction - 4.8%.

According to statistics in January-November 2020, the absolute leadership is held by the trade sector with a volume of 2.5 trillion drams ($ 5.2 billion). The second position was held by the industrial sector with a volume of 1.8 trillion ($ 3.8 billion), the services sector held the third - 1.55 trillion drams ($ 3.2 billion), the fourth, due to the lack of data on the agricultural sector, is occupied by the construction sector - 322.4 billion drams ($ 663.1 million). The volume of electricity generation in January-November 2020 amounted  to 6990.5 million kWh, of which in November alone- 632.6 million kWh.

Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January-November 2020 amounted to 3.1 trillion drams ($ 6.4 billion), falling by 12.4% per annum. Moreover, the reduction in import volumes turned out to be more significant - by 15.9% to 1.98 trillion drams ($ 4.1 billion) than exports - by 5.2% to 1.1 trillion drams ($ 2.3 billion). In November 2020, the decline in foreign trade turnover accelerated from 2.9% to 5%, due to the reversal of  the dynamics of imports from 2.3% growth to 2.6% decline, and the slowdown in exports with a slowdown from 11.1 % to 9.4%. And in November 2020 compared to November 2019, a 25.9% decrease in foreign trade turnover was triggered by a 28.9% decline in imports, while exports fell by 19.4%. A year earlier, in January-November 2019, an increase in Armenia's foreign trade turnover by 7.4% was provoked by an  increase in exports by 9% and imports by 6.6%, in November alone, foreign trade turnover increased by 4.5% due to an increase in exports by 8 , 5% and imports by 3.1%, and compared with November 2018, the growth of foreign trade turnover by 14.2% came mainly from the growth of exports by 25.7%, while imports grew by 9.6%.

The average calculated AMD exchange rate in November 2020 was 499.62 AMD / $ 1, and in January-November 2020 - 486.29 AMD / $ 1, against 477.08 AMD / $ 1 - in November 2019 and 480.65 AMD / $ 1 - in January-November 2019 .

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