GDP per capita in Armenia will increase by $ 324 by the end of 2019
According to the results of 2019, per capita GDP in Armenia is expected to reach $ 4,604 instead of $ 4,280 predicted by the end of this year. At the same time, at the end of 2015, the figure was $ 3,512. "This is not the best indicator and we will strive for higher numbers," introducing the draft budget for the next year, said November 1, and Atom Janjughazyan, Minister of Finance of Armenia.
Dazhndzhugazyan reminded that the government of Armenia approved the draft state budget for 2019 at a meeting on September 27. The budget - 2019 will be the main financial and economic document prepared in the format of program budgeting.
Thus, the nominal GDP of Armenia in 2019, according to the draft budget for the next year, will grow by about 560 billion - from 6.193.0 billion drams expected by the end of 2018 to 6.756.2 billion drams pledged in the project. GDP growth, according to the document, will be 4.9%, instead of 4.5% laid down in the approved state budget for the 2018th year. The consolidated budget for the next year in terms of revenues is estimated at 1,533.7 billion drams (without revenues from intergovernmental transfers) instead of 1,343.5 billion drams in 2018, in the line of expenses - 1,685.3 billion drams (without receipts from intergovernmental transfers), against 1,500.5 billion drams in the current year, the deficit is about 151.6 billion drams or 2.2% of GDP, against 156.9 billion drams pledged for 2018 or 2.7% of GDP, but revised to 103.5 billion drams. 44.2 billion drams will act as sources of financing the budget deficit - internal sources, and 114.4 billion drams - external. Community budgets for 2019 are estimated to be 138.9 billion drams (including official grants from the state budget) in the line of income, and 138.9 billion drams from expenses. This year, a figure of 130.1 billion drams was laid. 12-month inflation is expected at 4% with an acceptable limit of fluctuations of +/- 1.5%.
In 2019, capital spending from the current 2.4% of GDP will grow to 3.2% of GDP. State treasury revenues will amount to 1 trillion 491 billion drams (1.354.8 billion drams this year) or 22.1% of GDP, of which tax revenues and state fees will amount to 1 trillion 399.2 billion drams or 20.7% of GDP, instead of 1.255.8 billion drams or 20.3% GDP in 2018, expenditures - 1 trillion 642.2 billion drams (against the current 1,458.3 billion drams. Current expenditures will make 1,4227 billion drams, instead of the current 1, billion ladies. The deflator index will be 104%, against 104.4% predicted by the end most of the state budget will be spent on the implementation of programs in the social and cultural 24% of all state budget funds will be spent on solving problems related to maintaining public order, security and defense, 12.3% will be invested in the real sector of the economy, and 3.2% will be sent in subsidies to local government budgets. from all expenses, and 5.8% - to government departments.
In 2019, official grants amounting to 39 billion drams are expected from international structures and foreign states, instead of 35.8 billion drams in 2018. Other budget revenues will be 52.4 billion drams next year, instead of 23.9 billion drams for the current year.
Next year, as a result of the fiscal policy, the level of public debt will be stabilized. Thus, it is expected that the ratio of public debt to GDP will decrease from 55% predicted by the end of 2018 to 53.43% of GDP, and the ratio of government debt to GDP by the end of 2018 will be reduced from 53.4% to 49.7% . "Armenia, therefore, continues to remain a country with a low debt burden," said Janjughazyan. At the same time, as the minister explained, in nominal terms the debt will grow. In general, by the end of 2019, the state debt will grow to $ 7.468 billion with the expected budget for the current year of about $ 7.1 billion, and the government debt will be $ 6 billion 844.5 million. According to the budget, by the end of 2018, the national debt is planned to increase by about $ 400 million - up to $ 7,168 million, or up to today, up to $ 7,053 billion as of December 31, 2018. (483.06 for one American dollar). In 2019, the government will spend 10% of all expenses on servicing the public debt. It should be noted that the World Bank improved the forecast for GDP growth in Armenia for 2018 from the previous 4.1% to the current 5.3%. The World Bank also improved the forecast of GDP growth in Armenia for 2019 - from the previous 4% to the current 4.3%, with an acceleration to 4.6% in 2020. This is noted in the October report of the WB "Macroeconomic Development of Armenia". The Central Bank of Armenia raised the range of the forecast for GDP growth for 2018 - from 4.6-6.5% to 5.6-6.9%, more modestly revising towards the acceleration the expected growth threshold for 2019 - 4.6-6.4 % and for 2020 - 4,1-6,2%, against previously predicted respectively 4,1- 6,2% and 3,9-6,1%. In the state budget of the Republic of Armenia for 2018, GDP growth of 4.5% is laid.