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To ensure stable growth of the Armenian economy, the export / GDP ratio should be at least 50%

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18.02.2019
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In 2018, Armenia recorded the largest increase in trade turnover in the EEU. In 2018, the country's exports to the EU amounted to $ 2.4 billion.  Economist, member of the Eurasian expert club Ashot Tavadyan said this at a press conference, introducing the report "Armenian Economy in 2018." and priorities in the context of the country's membership in the EAEU>.

According to the expert, for the development of the country's economy, the most important indicator is export. <This is an even more important indicator than GDP. Therefore, to ensure stable growth of the Armenian economy, we must achieve a 50% or $ 6 billion export /  GDP ratio, "Tavadyan stressed.  Ashot Tavadyan noted that in 2018  there was a significant increase in exports of the textile industry -  by about 65%. Fruit exports doubled more than doubled - for example,  exports of apricots, peaches, and other plum fruits increased from $  13 million to $ 28 million. Exports of fish increased by 34% and exports of cigarettes also increased by 12% from 238 to 266 million dollars. Against this background, it is noteworthy that one of the main exports, non-ferrous metal ore, decreased by 8%, from $ 571 to $  525 million, which is exported to Europe and China. The economist believes that in general, this is associated with a slowdown in export growth. If in the EEU countries there are no problems with the state debt and the state budget deficit, then there is significant inconsistency in inflation and, especially, in the exchange rate of national currencies. According to the expert, the growth of commodity turnover between the EAEU states is clearly not conducive to tangible fluctuations in the rates of national currencies relative to each other.

"It is necessary to note the following factor: in case of  non-expansion in practice of mutual settlements in national currency,  specifically in case of non-use of the Russian ruble in mutual  settlements on energy resources, the Central Banks of the EAEU  countries will not have a clear incentive for the exact  implementation of the requirements of the EAEU Treaty regulations and  other documents. Without the transition to mutual settlements in national currency, especially for energy resources, it is impossible to solve the important task of liberalizing and coordinating energy prices in the EAEU. "

Tavadyan is sure that in order to increase trade turnover between the  EAEU member states, the key need is to pursue a coordinated monetary policy, indicating in Article 64 possible fluctuations in the exchange rate of national currencies between themselves (no more than  3%). "On September 17, 2018, in Yerevan, the chairmen of the Central  Banks of the EAEU Member States signed an agreement on the need to harmonize the legislation of the Union members in the financial market. It is advisable that the requirements of the International  Treaty on the EAEU, especially Article 64, be taken into account, as well as our additions. Strict fulfillment of contractual obligations by member states of the EAEU, coordination of macroeconomic policies,  first of all, coordination of inflation and the exchange rate of national currencies and the transition to mutual settlements in the national economy real currency is now of key importance. For a stable and interconnected growth of the economies of the EAEU member states,  the solution of these tasks is of paramount importance, "he stressed.

Tavadyan also touched upon the resumption of rail traffic. According to him, the activation of the work of all the EAEU member states to solve the problem of the railway through Georgia to Armenia is urgently needed.

"The resumption of rail traffic through Georgia to Armenia will significantly increase trade not only in Georgia and Armenia but also in Iran. When developing the EEU foreign trade strategy with  Georgia, this perspective must be taken into account," said a member of the Eurasian Expert Club.

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